Palm started Sept at RM4144 and ended at RM3416, dropping a whopping RM728/MT due to entering of seasonal high production and building up of Stock in Malaysia. Indonesia still in the midst of pushing their physical cargos to international destinations to lower their domestic stock to manageable level thus pressing Malaysia suppliers to compete in order to recapture some of the market share.
Dorab’s speech in Globoil created further bearishness when he forecasted BMD to be at RM3000/MT by end Sept and RM2500/MT by end Dec. His end stock for Dec 2022 Malaysia at 3mil mt and Malaysia 2022 prdtion at 19.8mil mt. Further pressure coming off from Indonesia is that Export Duty has dropped from USD74/MT to USD33/MT during Sept period which widens margins for local producers and drives Indonesia to be more competitive on CPO exports.
From the Macro level, Crude oil also tumbled from USD88/Barrel to USD81/Barrel for the month of Sept rebounding till $85/barrel by mid October,. Crude managed to recover from the lows after Nordstream was hit and EU contemplating putting a price cap on Russia Crude. Fear of Economy entering recession also putting pressure on Commodites due to relentless high inflationary pressures from US, EU and other emerging markets. Also fear of non-performance by emerging markets also impacted Palm.
SBO rebounded from the lows due to support from Crude thus widening the BOPO spread. Argy Soy Dollar values were highly competitive and 15mil mt of Bean trade was done. Other currencies were facing devaluation against a strong USD due to high interest rates.
Overall the external influences did tamper demand while suppliers are happy to sell and locked in USD which they can convert to more local currencies for their local expenses. USDA painted a lower yield than mkt expectation due to the drought effect with the situation being exacerbated by the low water level at the Mississippi River causing high barge freight which in turn is supporting CBOT as many exporters needed the new beans to blend with the old beans to make it export grade. Lastly, we saw talks of closing the Ukraine Export Corridor as Putin claimed it was abused as those grains did not flow to the poorer countries such as Middle East and Africa, if this comes to fact then oil prices will remain supported globally.
Destination wise we continue to see weaker prices and more decoupling of destination prices versus the origin and futures. Cash prices are no longer as reactive as futures in a rally, but during downtrends cash prices move down heavily and remain resistant to rebounds. Buyer is king right now, and sellers are under pressure to keep destocking to rebalance origin and destination.
9月随着马来西亚进入季节性高产月份以及当地库存增加，棕榈油价格从月初4144林吉特下降到月底3416林吉特，下降幅度高达每吨728林吉特。印尼继续将现货销往国际市场，使其国内库存降低到可控水平，迫使马来西亚供应商与其竞争以重新夺回部分市场份额。
Dorab在Globoil会议上的讲话进一步激发了市场看跌情绪。他预测9月底马盘价格3000林吉特/吨，12月底2500林吉特/吨。 库存方面预测2022年12月马来期末库存300万吨，2022年马来总产量1980万吨。同时将面对印尼方面的进一步压力，出口税在9月份从74美元/吨降至33美元/吨，当地生产商利润提高，印尼出口毛棕油更具竞争力。
宏观层面，原油9月份从88美元/桶跌至81美元/桶，至10月中旬又反弹至85美元/桶。北溪泄漏，以及欧盟考虑对俄罗斯原油设定价格上限使原油价格从低位中复苏。由于美国、欧盟和其他新兴市场的持续高通胀，市场对经济进入衰退的担忧情绪也给大宗商品带来了压力，对新兴市场经济不景气的担忧也影响了棕榈油市场。
受到原油支撑，豆油从低点反弹，进一步扩大豆棕价差。阿根廷大豆美元极具竞争力，推动1500万吨豆类贸易。受高利率影响，其他货币面对强势美元都面临贬值。
总体而言，需求端受外部影响，而供给端供应商销售意愿明显，通过收取美元从而兑换更多当地货币以支付本地费用。受干旱的影响，美国农业部预测产量低于市场预期，同时叠加由于密西西比河低水位导致的高昂驳船运费影响，反过来又支撑了CBOT价格，因为许多出口商需要将新旧豆子混合以符合出口级别要求。另一方面，因为普京声称乌克兰农产品并未流向中东和非洲等较贫穷的国家，出口走廊存在滥用，也出现了关闭该走廊的传闻，如果这最终成为事实，那么油价在全球范围内将继续获得支撑。
销售目的地方面，价格继续走弱，目的地价格与原产地和期货价格进一步脱钩。现货价格与期货联动不再明显，在下跌趋势中，现货价格大幅下降并未出现反弹。在买方主导话语权的情况下，卖方面临需要持续去库存以重新平衡原产地和目的地的压力。