Q2 has been a challenging quarter for physical shipments as Indonesia has been pushing a very unstable policy for domestic market obligations. The ban which started at the end of April lasted to the end of may, and beyond that with no clear mechanism to obtain export permits the market remained in turmoil till the 10th of June., Trendwise the market has been in a downtrend due to the Indonesia export ban being lifted. Market has dropped from a high of 6700 MYR to 5450MYR level for BMD 3rd month which is the most active traded contract for palm futures at the origin. Market has been pretty volatile at the end of May 2022 to the start of June 2022. This is due to many rumours and uncertainty with how Indonesia was going to lift the ban, these ranged from rumours about from no export permits required to a DMO ration of 1mt domestic sales to 1mt export sales. Indonesia’s government realised it had made a mistake on banning exports and thus moved promptly to rectify the issue, and the President even reshuffling his cabinet to oust the minister of trade and replace him with someone he hopes will be more productive to the industry. The result of the ban has made Indonesia’s companies unable to capture the high vegetable oil prices while increasing their own domestic stocks to such high levels that it was putting pressure on storage facilities. As a result, they lifted the ban and even reduced the taxes to relieve pressure on domestic stocks. They also allowed companies to export earlier as long as they pay an additional 200 USD/MT levy. For our international business it meant that shipments from Indonesia were not possible for may, we had one contract in place which we were forced to washout as there was no clear signs in sight that the shipment could take place. June also we were not able to secure volume out of both Indonesia and Malaysia with shippers from trade houses having to use their Malaysia assets to fulfill commitments to buyers and using whatever export permits they could get from Indonesia too meet with old commitments and fulfill their in-house shipment programs. In terms of the demand side, China’s on and off lockdown has been affecting the local demand, which further puts further pressure on prices. China has been buying further month physical cargoes and most likely would not be back into the market in the short run.
Pakistan has been running very low on stocks since the beginning of the ban, with all time lows of 15 days worth of stocks and a $200 local parity, but with the country running low on foreign exchange the government is asking people to start rationing on demand of imported goods.
Bangladesh was poorly covered as well going into the Indonesian export ban with the government putting strict price caps local players were unable to import oils into the country, amidst the rumors of the lift they covered cargos to tide them over while they wait for the price to correct.
Africa has been struggling with high prices as well, WAF began with export bans even for regional flows, price caps for domestic markets and rationing of demand for oils in select countries. Stocks much like other destinations globally have been very tight and we have been hearing of refineries in East Africa also struggling with foreign exchange to be able to pay for their raw materials. In usual conditions come May of every year the crop starts to trend down in WAF locally and imports from Asia start to trade, but even till now we have not seen any major bookings of palm into key refining destinations (IVC and Nigeria) for larger shipments. Container flows have also dried up with distributors not wanting to be caught with stocks in a market correction and sellers not eager to sell into a higher risk destination.
In other news, US soybean planting has been excellent. The percentage of good to excellent crops is more than doubled that of the prior season. Despite the war in Ukraine affecting sunflower production, most believe that US and South American soybean production, and Indonesia palm oil production will more than make up for the drop in world sunflower production.
US continues to increase interest rates as inflation continues to climb. This has resulted in an overall bearish macro sentiment. Crude prices continue to drop as recession worries outweigh tight supplies. All these factors (Increased supply, macro worries etc.) has resulted in bearish market sentiment.
印尼政策变化对棕油市场的影响
由于印尼一直推行非常不稳定的国内市场义务（DMO）政策，今年第二季度现货船市场充满挑战。 禁令从4月底开始一直持续到 5月底，而且由于缺乏获得出口许可的明确机制，市场一直动荡至 6月10日。在出口禁令取消后，市场整体处于下行趋势，原产地棕榈期货交易最活跃的合约（马盘现货+2月），市场价从 6700 令吉的高位跌至 5450 令吉的水平。从2022年5月底到2022年6月初，对于印尼将如何取消禁令，市场充斥着各类传闻和不确定性，从不需要出口许可证， 到DMO配给定为1吨国内销售对1吨出口销售，各类传闻四起，市场震荡明显。印尼政府意识到禁令造成的问题并迅速做出了调整，总统甚至改组内阁罢免原贸易部长，任命更能推动行业发展的新部长取而代之。出口禁令导致印尼企业无法受益于植物油处于高位的市场机会，同时又大大推高了本国库存，对储存设施造成压力。政府取消禁令后，甚至出台减税政策以缓解国内库存压力，同时也允许公司在额外支付200 美元/吨税的前提下提前出口。针对我们的国际业务，禁令导致5月开始出口受限，我们已确定的合同由于无法确保出货被迫进行洗船。6月各上游供货商仍需从马来西亚出口，或利用任何可获得的印尼出口许可证来履行已签署的合约或内部需求，因此我们从印尼和马来的出货仍无法得到完全保证。在需求方面，中国国内不断的隔离解封一直影响当地市场需求，对价格造成进一步压力。中国一直在购买远月现货，很可能短期内不会重返市场。
自禁令推行以来，巴基斯坦国内库存量一直处于非常低的水平，并首次出现了低于15天库存量的情况，本国油品价格与进口替代的价差达到200 美元。然而由于该国外汇储备短缺，政府已要求民众缩减进口商品需求。
出口禁令对孟加拉国也有很大影响，由于政府设定了严格的价格上限，当地买家无法进行进口，在取消出口禁令传闻四起时，该国购买量也仅能维持必要需求，等待价格纠偏至合理水平再逐步增加。
非洲市场也一直面临高价位的挑战，西非甚至开始禁止区域内国家出口、设定国内市场价格上限并调整特定国家的油类需求配给。与全球其他销售目的地一样，非洲市场库存非常紧张，东非精炼厂甚至受困于外汇短缺而影响生产原料的支付。通常每年5月起西非当地作物收成开始下降，从亚洲的进口逐步上升， 但截至目前仍未出现流入主要精炼国（科特迪瓦和尼日利亚）的大笔棕榈油订单，且由于经销商不愿在市场调整纠偏时建立库存，集装箱流量也非常有限，同时卖家也不急于销往相对风险更高的销售目的地。
其他消息方面，美豆种植情况良好。优良作物的百分比是上一季的两倍多。尽管俄乌战争影响了向日葵产量，普遍认为美豆和南美大豆，以及印度尼西亚棕榈油产量将足以弥补全球向日葵产量的下降。
随着通胀继续攀升，美国在持续加息，这导致整体市场看跌的宏观情绪。由于对经济衰退的担忧超过了供应紧张，原油价格继续下跌。所有这些因素（供应增加、宏观担忧等）都导致了看跌的市场情绪。