The palm market has been a relatively quiet one in the past month with most firms reducing risk and not taking large positions as the festive season approaches in the west. Outside of China no other destination has been an active buyer of oil. Systemic issues have plagued demand with high prices and weak currencies in developing nations hindering their ability to make payments for cargo.
At the origins there has been little to no movement, Indonesia continues to push out oil ahead of the end of the year, as plantations locally sell off stock to show a better financial situation at the closing of their books, and refiners selling aggressively into China and south Asian destinations at heavily discounted prices to lock utilization for the beginning of the next year. As is usually the case at this time of the year, production has started to come off as we head into the low production cycle for palm. Anticipation is that the stocks will continue to reduce at the origin, but without destination pricing restarting we may not see a huge reduction in stocks as we had seen in previous years at least in the near term.
China surprised everyone by actively buying a large consignment of ships for Jan and Feb delivery despite at the time having a large amount of stock already within its borders, and slow end user demand, but because producers had to move cargo at aggressive prices so as to find a home for refined product with India planning higher import taxes for refined product meaning India would shift its purchases to CPO instead of Olein. At the point in time of writing this article, Pakistan remains the best paying destination for palm, though slowly there is more aggression in pricing of nearby cargos. Bangladesh secured heavily discounted cargos and with the heavily stressed local bank situation they are now out of the market not looking to purchase nearby cargo.
Indonesia followed through on its commitments to increase their domestic biodiesel consumption, going from a B30 this year into a B35 by Jan of next year. The additional demand will help to absorb local stocks, while at the same time supporting prices of palm. Technically Indonesia is reaching a blending ceiling on the biodiesel, beyond which they would need to revise the specification to ensure that there would be no issues with the engines running the blend.
Overall the market outlook remains relatively neutral to slightly bullish, though heavily dependent on macro influences, as we head into the holiday season things will continue to slow down, and tend to pick up again just after CNY.
过去一个月棕油市场相对平静，随着西方年底节日季的临近，大多数公司都在降低风险而不再持有大量头寸。中国以外的销售目的国购买都不积极。高价位和货币贬值等系统性问题一直困扰着发展中国家，影响着他们的货款支付能力。
原产地国家也普遍安静，印尼在年底前持续抛售，以确保当地种植园在年终财报时展现更好的财务状况，精炼厂以大幅折扣价积极向中国和南亚目的地进行销售，以锁定明年年初的开机率。与往年相同，随着棕榈树进入低生产周期，产量已经开始下降。预计原产国库存将继续减少，但如果目的地国家价格没有有效回弹，像往年那样的库存大幅减少至少在短期内将无法实现。
尽管中国国内已积累大量库存，且终端客户需求放缓，让所有人都感到惊讶的是中国仍积极购买了多条在 1 月和 2 月交付的油船，这和印度计划提高精炼油进口税，采购需求由精炼油转向毛棕油，导致生产商不得不抛售精炼产品有关。撰写本文时，巴基斯坦仍然是棕油最佳销售目的地，尽管近月定价正在慢慢具有侵略性。孟加拉国已锁定了大量折扣价格货物，由于当地银行形势严重紧张，他们目前不会入场继续购买近月货物。
印尼兑现了增加国内生物柴油消费的承诺，从今年的B30提升至明年1月执行B35。额外增加的需求将有助于吸收当地库存，同时支撑棕油价格。 在技术层面，印尼正在达到生物柴油的混合上限，一旦超过该上限，就需要修改相关参数规格，以确保运行生物柴油的发动机不会出现问题。
总体而言，市场前景保持相对中性略看涨，尽管受较大宏观因素影响，随着各地进入年底假期，总体节奏将继续放缓，并倾向于在春节后逐步回升。