The month of August has not been a particularly interesting one for international markets, at the origin the saga of mis-managed policies continued in Indonesia with the government announcing a new policy for the export duty reference price calculation, and after announcing a low export duty for 1-15 August, quickly realizing that there was an error in the benchmark price calculation and issuing a new price. This caused a backlog of vessels early in the month in Indonesian ports as some of the regional customs offices did not have the revised pricing and not allowing vessels to sail once loading completed. In the recent 2 months China has been an active buyer, though unlike previous years has not been opening a large window to buy, rather being more judicious in its purchases and spreading them over time, this meant that all eyes were on shipments from Indonesia and how their arrival would impact stocks locally.
Globally emergent economies have continued to suffer from inflation, weak foreign exchange rates in comparison to the USD, and a drop in purchasing power. Specifically key destinations for our business in west Africa such as Nigeria and Pakistan have been very challenging for buyers to purchase USD to pay off supplier debts. While not a surprise for Nigeria, it is the first time in the past decade that south Asian economies have had these issues. The general tone still seems to be somewhat optimistic for the ability of these countries to come out of this economic slump.
Malaysia reported lower than expected stocks for July closing, driven by stronger exports by the industry. Over time the vessel shortage has also been resolving itself, and we see international tanker freight rates starting to soften after recent record pricing. Our expectation is for freight rates to continue to weaken from here back to Q2 levels, and if international energy prices start to taper off then there is a good chance that we can revert back to the lows of the beginning of the year, though with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine it is unlikely to be seen in the near term. Price wise all eyes are currently on the US Soy crop, with no strong fundamental story behind palm production and demand, speculators continue to drive international oilseed complex prices based on weather reports on and off till the harvest starts in mid-September. We also have an eye on agricultural commodity shipments from the black sea as agreements in place between Ukraine and Russia is seeing some of these goods coming back into international markets, if the agreement is honored it could ease some of the pressure on the minor soft oils which have been rallying in comparison to other oils due to this blockage of goods coming out.
8 月份国际市场相对平静。原产地方面，政策多变的情况仍在继续，印尼政府出台了一项新的出口关税参考价格政策，在宣布8月1日至15日实行低出口关税价格后，政府很快意识到基准价格计算存在错误并发布了新价格，由于一些地区的海关尚未收到修改后的价格，在船只装载完成后不允许船只驶离港口，致使本月初在印尼港口出现了塞港的情况。最近 2 个月中国市场购买活跃，尽管与往年相比，并未呈现出明显的购买窗口，整体购买节奏更加谨慎平缓，这意味着市场都在关注从原产地出发的到船情况及对当地库存的影响。
全球新兴经济体继续面临通货膨胀、对美元汇率疲软以及购买力下降的挑战。尤其对于我们西非业务的主要销售目的地尼日利亚和巴基斯坦，买家以美元来偿还供应商债务的挑战巨大。该情况虽然对尼日利亚来说并不鲜见，但这是南亚经济体在过去十年中首次遇到类似情况。市场对于这些国家摆脱经济衰退的能力总体似乎仍保持些许乐观基调。
由于整体行业出口态势强劲，马来西亚报告7月底库存低于预期。随着时间的推移，油船短缺问题也在逐渐缓解，国际船运费在达到最近创纪录的高位后开始走低，预计运费将继续逐步恢复至第二季度水平，如果国际原油价格也开始回落，存在相当可能能够回落至年初的低位水平，尽管由于俄乌紧张局势这在短期内实现的可能性不大。
价格方面，市场集中关注美豆，棕榈生产和需求缺乏强力基本面支撑，投机商继续根据天气报告推动国际油籽综合价格，该情况将持续到9 月中旬收获季。因为乌克兰和俄罗斯之间达成协议，黑海开始出现农产品船运，重新流入国际市场。如果该协议得到遵守，将缓解此前由于货物物流阻塞，小众软油相比于其他油种的供应压力。