Since the beginning of June, we have been seeing prices rapidly dropping, over a 45 day period they fell 40% from RM6,300 levels to RM 3,800 levels. This came along with the drop of the Indonesian export ban in end May, along side a growing production in both Indonesia and Malaysia as we head towards the peak production month in September for both Origins. This increase in production and relatively limited shipments out from Indonesia led to a stock buildup at the origin and causing the downward pressure on the prices.
Along with the steep drop in prices, due to the high export duty/levy environment in Indonesia this meant that the plantations began to suffer as we saw local palm prices slip to near all time low prices and at times into the region of negative margins for plantations locally. This is something we have not seen since 2016/2017 where plantations struggled and reduced fertilizer applications and created production problems in the subsequent years. From the ground we have heard that there is a shortage of fertilizer in Indonesia, and as margins contracted it implied lower application on the fields. Over time this could imply that next year
Now that the export restrictions are abated, focus is on destinations to start restocking their depleted pipelines, though in the case of less developed countries, macro concerns are starting to affect the foreign exchange reserves and we see countries begging to ration their Forex outflows, at this time it hasn’t affected basic food commodities like vegetable oils, however if the situation continues in this direction we could see this start to impact flows and slow down payments, which would mean further stock builds at the origin.
China and India really play the pivotal role in destocking the origin, till date India has been healthily buying and replenishing their depleted stocks, however we are yet to see a second round of avid buying from China which will be the game changer.
Logistically we are seeing ocean freight for the first time in quite a few years building an inverse, with prices for freight at extremely high levels, Indian sub-continent freight from straits is trading at $85-90/mt from a starting of $35/mt at the beginning of the year, and till we see vessels being offered in a significant way this will continue for at least the next 45-60 days.
As we get into Q3 of this year, we feel that it will be a decisive time for what will be the market level for the next 12 months and setting up of the dynamics of how Indonesia will transition away from domestic mandated and back into a free market economy.
价格迅速回落影响农民利润
自 6 月初以来，棕榈油价格在 45 天内迅速下跌，从 6300 令吉下跌至 3800 令吉，跌幅达到40%。与此同时印尼出口禁令在5月底取消，印尼和马来两国产量也在逐步提高，向9 月两大原产国的产量高峰月迈进。 产量的增加以及印尼出发相对有限的油船数量导致原产国库存增加，并对价格造成下行压力。
随着价格的急剧下跌，由于印尼的高出口关税及征税环境，当地种植园开始受到冲击，当地棕榈价格跌至历史最低价边缘，有些种植园甚至面临负利润。这是自 2016、2017 年以来市场从未见过的情况，当时种植园苦苦挣扎，不得不减少施肥量，以至于在随后几年生产受到了影响。从当地信息来源得知目前印尼肥料短缺，且由于利润的缩小，田间的施肥量也将相应减少。随着时间的推移，这意味着明年产量将可能出现问题，低于原来的增长预期。
随着出口限制的放松，市场密切关注销售目的地国购买的动态，重建库存缓解之前的紧缺状态。尽管在欠发达国家，对于宏观经济的担忧开始影响外汇储备， 有些国家已着手对其外汇流出进行配给，但目前仍未对如植物油等基本食品类商品造成影响。然而如果以上情况继续发展，进口影响会开始显现同时支付速度减缓，原产地胀库压力将进一步增加。
中国和印度对于原产地去库存将发挥了关键作用，迄今为止，印度一直在正常购买并补充库存，然而中国的第二轮购买热潮仍未出现，一旦出现必将改变目前的市场格局。
从物流角度，海运费在近几年来首次逆势上涨，运费价格处于极高水平。印度次大陆海运费从今年初35 美元/吨已经上涨到 85-90 美元/吨 ，在海运船资源明显恢复之前，价格高位将至少继续持续 45-60 天。
今年第三季度将是决定未来 12 个月市场水平的决定性时刻，市场各参与方的动向也将确定印尼将如何从国内强制状态返回自由市场经济。