Starting from the 22nd of March the Islamic world began their annual holy month of fasting, which leads up to a long holiday to celebrate the end of fasting. Indonesia takes a week long holiday which started from the 19th running till the 25th, Malaysia on the other hand only closed shop for 4 days starting on the 21st till the 24th. These long holidays in general affect production all the way from the plantations to the export ports at the origin. In the build-up to the long holidays plantation workers begin to work extra hours to harvest more and earn extra income so that when they return home or as they locally say “Pulang Kampung” to celebrate with their families they have extra disposable income. In both Indonesia and Malaysia plantation workers tend to take 2 weeks of holidays as this is the one time a year that they can return home to their families.
On the demand side however for the majority Islamic countries this is the time in the year where demand peaks. We see this from the destination perspective where in West Africa the local ready stock prices have been holding steady despite a recently declining price at the origin. We expect that these prices will start to soften right after the holiday period, and hence like others we have been judicial in making forward sales to ensure that clients continue to perform on contracts. In Pakistan despite the tightening Macro scenario, we have been getting repeated requests to move additional cargo, as there was not enough liquidity in the domestic market causing the local parity to remain highly supported at $120/MT and above vs CNF prices. Bangladesh covered stock early on with heavy arrivals in late March and early April and were not seen active in the market later on in the month.
China has not been an active destination taking a page out of the gamebook from last year where they continued to buy cargos hand to mouth and slowly pricing cargos despite lackluster demand from the end users. India as the next major destination has as usual been playing games with import duty change rumors flying around as the country came towards its financial year end. Recently however with the better than anticipated production in South America soft oil prices took a steep fall, and India began to wash out cargos for palm and priced soft cargos in place of those list shipments.
All -in-all origin side there is no big pressure for planters to sell as the stock levels are comfortable, and destinations are continuing to deplete their stocks, we continue to expect to see this destination destocking while refiners at the origin wait for margins to recover and then begin to push cargos to the destination. Likely China will be the first destination to come back and cover cargos as stock levels continue to fall.
从3月22日开始，伊斯兰世界开始了一年一度的斋戒月， 斋戒结束将迎来长假。印度尼西亚从19日开始到25日放假一周， 马来西亚则从21日到24日商店歇业4天 。 这些长假的影响通常将覆盖从种植园到原产地出口港的整体运作。在长假前的准备阶段，种植园工人开始加班以加大收割量并赚取额外收入，以便当他们回家（当地人成为“Pulang Kampung”）与家人一起庆祝时，有额外的可支配收入。在印度尼西亚和马来西亚，种植园工人倾向于休假2周，因为这是他们一年一次可以回家与家人团聚的机会。
然而需求方面，对于大多数伊斯兰国家来说，这是一年中需求达到顶峰的时段。 从销售目的地国家来看，在西非，尽管最近原产地价格下跌，当地现有库存的价格一直保持稳定。预计这些价格将在假期结束后开始走软，因此与其企业一样，我们在进行远期销售时保持谨慎，以确保客户能继续履行合同。在巴基斯坦，尽管宏观形势收紧，仍一再收到当地要求增加供货的请求，当地市场缺乏足够的流动性，导致价格受到强有力支撑，对比CNF价格仍高出120美元/吨甚至以上。孟加拉国由于在3月底和4月初有大量到货已经提前补足库存，本月后期在市场上并不活跃。
从去年开始，中国市场交易一直不够活跃，主要按需购买，终端用户需求低迷定价也比较缓慢。印度作为另一个主要销售目的地，随着该国财政年度即将结束，如往常一样通过进口关税变化传言来搅动市场。然而，最近由于南美产量好于预期，软油价格大幅下跌，印度开始从棕榈油转向软油消费。
总体来看，原产地方面因为库存水平合适，种植园销售压力不大，而目的地市场持续消耗库存，去库预计将进一步持续，原产地端精炼厂则等待利润恢复后，再将货物推向目的地市场。随着库存水平的持续下降，中国很可能是第一个返回市场恢复购买的目的地国家。