A continued worsening Macro Scenario dampening demand, while production tapers in cyclic fashion.
Q1 for palm in the international markets has been quite tumultuous, prices started the year at a relatively low level compared to the highs of last year, raging around 3800 MYR/MT and peaking up to the 4300 MYR/MT levels towards the end of February and then starting a slow decline back to the levels of the beginning of the year in recent days. The rally in the prices was again due to rumors of clamping down on Domestic obligations in Indonesia ahead of the festive season which starts in March this year. Eventually the government announced the cancellation of 2/3 of the export permits that had been issued and outstanding, to be reinstated in May after the Ramadan Holiday. The slide in prices however has been due to the worsening macro-economic situation globally, which has put pressure on prices across the board of commodities and equities alike. The macro situation was further exacerbated by the lack of foreign exchange in emerging economies in South Asia and Africa.
Currently from a Demand perspective China has been sitting on a high level of stocks which started the year at close to 1mmt and has only declined by ~10% to 900kmt in march. With such heavy stocks domestically China has not been an active buyer of palm, with enough supplies to last 2 months in the case that it does not replenish its stocks. India has been an on and off buyer, meeting its demand needs hand to mouth, with no specific pressure from a demand or supply perspective. Weather has been very supportive in India where they are harvesting one of their best annual crops of mustard seed, and with early signs of supportive weather for the rest of the year, it could overall be a very productive year for domestic oilseed crops though remaining to be seen as the weather continues to evolve. With the two major global buyers not active, smaller destinations have been buying but in sporadic intervals. Pakistan to date remains the country with the best demand, however due to the poor economic situation companies are weary to sell despite a fast approaching holiday season.
Supply side both Indonesia and Malaysia have been quite comfortable, Q1 cyclically is the low point in production for these origins hence there has been no pressure to push oil to destinations. Both Indonesia and Malaysia are on track for marginally higher production year on year, though due to systemic issues from last year on availability of fertilizer, high price of fertilizer and lack of manpower in Malaysia the performance is not to the maximum potential of both countries. This however with softening prices should start to even out, and with more workers being allowed into Malaysia post the full opening in 2022 after Covid, and we remain optimistic for the production in the coming years.
The next month or so is expected to be quite quiet, especially after an extremely eventful March which had the first full-scale POC (Palm Oil Conference) in KL after 3 years of Covid restrictions. The three Guru’s of palm proclaiming the following:
–Quote–
*POC2023 Summary of Main Speakers on BMD OUTLOOK:*
*1) Thomas Mielke = Bullish in 2H*
– Malaysian Rbd Palm Olein Prices Seen At $1150 /T in Second Half Of 2023
– Vegetable Oil Prices Could Rise in the Second Half Of 2023 And 2024 On Rising Biofuel Demand
*2) James Fry = Bearish in Q4*
– Palm oil futures contract will trade at 3,350 ringgit per tonne by the end of the year
– Malaysia benchmark crude palm oil futures FCPOc3 will average 3,760 ringgit ($831.86) a tonne in 2023, down from 4,920 ringgit in 2022, pressured by lower gasoil prices
– Rotterdam Crude Palm Oil Will Average At $940/T In 2023 Vs $1,350/T In 2022
*3) Dorab Mistry = Bullish in 1H*
– Malaysia’s Palm Oil Seen Trading Between 4,000 To 5,000 Rgt/T Between Now and August
– Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks to Fall Until May, Will Go Below 2 Mln T
– Indonesia’s Biodiesel Programme to Keep Palm Oil Stocks Tight in The H1 2023
– Development Of El Nino Weather Pattern to Determine Palm Oil Prices in H2 2023
–End Quote–
棕油国际市场第一季度经历较大震荡，与去年初的高点相比，今年年初的价格相对较低，在3800林吉特/吨左右，到2月底达到4300林吉特/吨的峰值后缓慢回落至年初价格水平。价格上涨的原因与市场传言印尼将在今年3月斋月前限制国内市场义务DMO政策有关。最终，政府宣布取消2/3已发放和未发放的出口许可证，并将在5月斋月假期后恢复。价格下滑则是由于全球宏观经济形势恶化，给大宗商品和股票市场等带来压力。南亚和非洲新兴经济体的外汇短缺进一步加剧了宏观形势的负面影响。
目前从需求国角度看，中国一直处于高库存水平，年初库存接近100万吨，3月份仅下降10%至90万吨。在如此高的国内库存水平下，即使不补充库存， 供应仍可维持2个月，因此购买棕油的积极性不高。印度的购买则时断时续，仅根据基本需求购买，供需两端都没有明显压力。印度的天气状况很好， 正处于其最好的农作物之一芥菜籽的收获期，且目前该国天气的早期迹象显示对国内油籽作物有利，预测整体产量可观，当然需持续观察天气变化。整体而言两大棕油主力消费国购买不活跃，较小的消费国虽有购买但时有间隔，迄今为止巴基斯坦仍是需求最好的消费国家，但由于该国经济形势不佳，尽管斋月假期即将来临，对该国的销售都比较谨慎疲软。
供给端印尼和马来西亚暂未有压力，一季度两大产地产量处于周期性低点，因此没有向需求国积极销售的压力。 印尼和马来西亚的产量每年同比均略有上升，但由于去年化肥供应、化肥高价位和马来西亚人工短缺等系统性问题，两国生产表现并未发挥最大潜力。然而，随着价格走低，情况将趋于平稳，且随着2022年疫情后的全面开放，更多工人被允许进入马来西亚，我们对未来几年的生产情况保持乐观。
预计下月市场将比较安静，尤其是3月在吉隆坡举行了三年疫情后的第一次大规模POC会议（棕榈油大会）。棕油行业三位核心权威人士发言总结：
–援引–
*POC 2023 马盘走势展望总结：*
*1） Thomas Mielke = 下半年看涨*
– 2023年下半年马来西亚精炼棕榈液油价格预计为1150美元/吨
– 随着生物柴油需求增加，植物油价格可能在 2023 年下半年和 2024 年上涨
*2） James Fry = 第四季度看跌*
– 棕榈油期货合约年底交易价格预计3350林吉特/吨
– 受到柴油价格下跌的压力，马来西亚基准毛棕榈油期货FCPOc3 2023年平均价格预计为3760林吉特/吨（约合831.86美元），低于2022年的4920林吉特/吨
– 鹿特丹毛棕榈油2023年平均价格预计为940美元/吨，2022年为1350美元/吨
*3） Dorab Mistry = 上半年看涨*
– 从现在起到8月，马来西亚棕榈油交易价格区间在4000至5000 林吉特/吨
– 马来西亚棕榈油库存下降将持续至5月，将跌破200万吨
– 印尼的生物柴油计划将使2023年上半年棕榈油库存保持偏紧状态
– 厄尔尼诺现象的进展情况将决定2023年下半年的棕油价格走势