The last 30 days have been quite eventful with a lot of speculation coming back and forth on the Indonesian side to see if the levy would be confirmed or not, at the end of October the sentiment was that the Levy would not be implemented, however in a last minute trademark change by the Indonesian government there was the announcement that the Levy would be put back into place in Mid November, which caused the market to at first retrace and then bull up again, swinging from 4300 RM/MT in early September down to 3200+ Levels and then back up to the 4300-4400 level.
Because of this heavy volatility destination demand has remained suppressed. Plagued with issues of foreign exchange supplies, as well as high prices demand in key destinations has remained weak. China itself has also been moving into the winter season which is the natural low-season for palm demand, though coupled with the disruptions caused by the ongoing pandemic its created a relatively negative outlook for demand going forward till Chinese new year. Indian imports continue to remain relatively strong with the import arb staying open to breakeven for most of the duration and trickle pricing happening whenever corrections are seen in the market.
In Africa we continue to hear of struggles of buyers gaining access to foreign exchange due to local government rules, and at the same time on the consumer pack a wave of imported oil was sold at discount levels which caused demand for fresh imports to lack behind. We are now seeing this demand start to trickle back for forward buying positions starting with Jan oils.
In Malaysia the parliament was dissolved, in an effort to rebuild and strengthen, the outcome of which not likely to affect palm prices or policy to a great extent, however it will dictate the foreign exchange health and trade balance of the country going forward, which in and of itself could create a ripple effect into commodity prices. Eyes are still on seeing who will be the leader in this election with a hung parliament in the balance and a coalition required by the challenging party to take control.
过去 30 天市场多变，来回反复猜测印尼方面是否会加征出口专项税。10 月底预测将不会征收，然而印尼政府在最后一刻宣布将在 11 月中旬恢复征税， 这导致市场在回撤后再次上扬，从9月初的4300 林吉特/吨跌至3200林吉特/吨以上，然后再次回升至4300-4400价格水平。
受这种剧烈波动影响，销售目的地需求继续受到抑制。外汇供应问题以及产品价格高位水平使主要目的地需求持续疲软。中国也在逐步进入冬季，属于棕榈油需求的天然淡季，叠加疫情持续对市场造成的影响，对农历新年前的需求前景市场预测相对消极。印度进口继续保持相对强劲态势，进口套利大部分情况下能保持盈亏平衡，在合适的市场定价下始终维持小批量稳定采购。
在非洲，受当地政府政策限制，买家外汇获取难度加大，与此同时已进口的包装油进行打折销售也影响了散油和包装油的新进口需求。未来进口需求有望好转，1月合约已出现了市场采购的信号。
在马来西亚，为了重建并加强政府管理，现有议会解散，虽然不太可能大幅影响棕榈油价格或政策，但这将决定该国未来的外汇状况和贸易平衡，并使商品价格产生连锁反应。选举结果拭目以待，议会悬而未决的情况下，反对党需要进行联盟才能取得控制权。